Shipping companies are accelerating fleet expansion to strengthen their competitive position and expand market share. Notably, this expansion is far exceeding the growth in actual shipping demand. Despite falling freight rates and signs of slowing purchasing power in the US, global container ship orders have reached 13 million TEU. This development raises concerns about the risk of significant oversupply in the container shipping market from 2027-2028.
According to shipping consultancy Linerlytica, total global container ship orders are equivalent to 38.3% of the currently operating fleet size, the highest level since the global financial crisis nearly two decades ago. The total volume of ships under order even exceeds the combined existing fleet size of the three major shipping companies: Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO.
In the first four months of 2026, total new shipbuilding orders exceeded 1.9 million TEU. Linerlytica believes the market is likely to surpass the 2025 record, when the container industry recorded 5.1 million TEU of new orders for the entire year. The majority of these new vessels are expected to be delivered in 2028.
Confirmed orders for this period currently stand at approximately 5.2 million TEU. The competition for market share among shipping lines shows no signs of slowing down, keeping the wave of new shipbuilding orders going. However, this trend also increases the risk of oversupply. More than 5 million TEU of new capacity could be added in 2028 alone, creating significant pressure on the market’s supply-demand balance.
Conversely, global container freight rates continue to weaken. The Drewry WCI global container index fell for the third consecutive week, declining 1% to $2,216/FEU. The decline was seen across several key shipping routes, including Asia-Europe, Trans-Pacific, and transatlantic. According to Drewry, freight rates remain pressured by overcapacity and low demand, despite persistently high fuel costs and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Signals from the consumer demand side also indicate a more cautious trend. The University of Michigan reported that the US consumer confidence index in April 2026 fell to a record low, suggesting a potential continued slowdown in import demand in the near future.
